– Predictions for 2008
During 2007, the pace of digital media-related events quickened, and it appears likely to accelerate in 2008. For example, just imagine all the announcements we’ll be hearing about portable products that have Wi-Fi and/or WiMAX built-in.
Broadly speaking, there were three major trends:
1. Content owners – record labels, TV networks, studios and musicians – began using the Web to offer content directly to consumers. Think Radiohead, Disney, ABC TV, BBC, ITV, Channel 4, NBC and Fox.
2. The era began for digital media-capable mobile devices that always have a high-speed, wireless Internet connection. Some predict that the number of hours of content delivered to mobile devices will exceed what’s delivered via wireline broadband to the home in a few years.
3. User-generated content increased in popularity as social network sites, both on the PC and on mobiles, added video sharing. Nokia estimates that as much as 25% of the entertainment that’s viewed on mobile devices will be user-generated.
Among the more significant events of 2007 were:
– IPhone and iPod touch. These products seemingly generated more press coverage and buzz than all other events combined. (Wonder what Uncle Steve has in mind for us at next month’s MacWorld?)
– Google’s free Android operating system for mobile devices. Google pulls out all stops in its efforts to get its ad network on every Internet connected device.
– Verizon Wireless declares an open mobile Internet initiative. Oh pray that it actually happens. There are skeptics. After all, Verizon Wireless is the company that turned down Apple’s iPhone.
– Nokia’s launch and expansion of its Ovi portal. The world’s largest handset maker commits to becoming the world’s largest purveyor of Internet products and services for mobile devices.
– US and UK TV networks show new episodes of their TV series on the Net. Was there ever a louder bell proclaiming the decline of traditional broadcasting?
– The NBCU and News Corp Hulu joint venture. Lots of smoke, but not much substance… yet.
– BBC’s iPlayer service. Shows the way forward for delivering current TV episodes.
– Joint venture by BBC, ITV and Channel 4. The largest UK TV networks band together to create one Web portal for all three to offer current and “curated” episodes.
– Verizon’s fiber-to-the-home and 100 Mbps effort. Its FiOS service attempts to drag about 10% of US homes into the 21st century.
– US cablecos demonstrate technology capable of 150 Mbps to the home over their existing infrastructure. If successful, it could force telcos to accelerate their fiber network deployments.
– Radiohead, others bypass labels and begin selling their music directly on the Net. Why not? There’s a worldwide market of millions of music lovers who are online daily.
– Development and deployment of next-generation mobile networks that will offer high-speed, mobile and open-to-all Internet access. Sprint, Google, Intel, Cisco, Motorola and Samsung lead the charge to deploy WiMAX-based networks as direct competition to existing mobile operators.
– Amazon and others offering DRM-free tracks from the major labels. The beginning of the end of the copy-protected music era, just as Apple’s Steve Jobs had forecast.
– Apple loses out on Universal Music’s DRM-free, high-quality music tracks and NBCU’s TV shows. ‘Nuff said.
It’s certain that 2008 will start off with a bang. CES, January 6-11 in Vegas, will have gazillions of announcements. Apple and Steve Jobs will have some surprises the following week at MacWorld, January 14-18 in San Francisco.
Among the trends we expect to see in 2008 are:
– A flood of portable devices – from mobile phones to digital cameras – with Wi-Fi and/or WiMAX built in.
– Significant advancements in wireline broadband technology as the world’s telcos and cablecos begin to realize that every home will need a 100 Mbps pipe.
– Lots of activity in wireless Internet access – from bids on spectrum to build-outs of WiMAX networks to existing carriers opening their networks to continued attempts to use Wi-Fi in wide-area networks.
– More content owners bypassing their traditional media distribution methods and offering their goodies directly to consumers on the Web.
– Google’s initiative to make its ad network available on every Internet-connected device and its continuing launches of online products and services to attract eyeballs.
– Software applications, information services and consumer data will increasingly be Internet-based, making it available to consumers wherever they are and reducing the need for hard disks in mobile devices.
Looking back at what happened in the digital media realm in 2007, and looking forward at what’s likely to happen in 2008 (starting with a slew of announcements at CES in a few weeks), one can’t help but wonder what techno-surprises are in store for us in 2009, 2010 and beyond. And we can’t wait to find out.
MobileInternetReporter.com 